{"id":194047,"date":"2026-03-17T13:14:27","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T16:14:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.radiojai.com\/?p=194047"},"modified":"2026-03-17T13:14:27","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T16:14:27","slug":"la-guerra-que-nadie-puede-frenar-hasta-que-trump-lo-decida-yoel-schwartz","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.radiojai.com\/index.php\/2026\/03\/17\/194047\/la-guerra-que-nadie-puede-frenar-hasta-que-trump-lo-decida-yoel-schwartz\/","title":{"rendered":"La guerra que nadie puede frenar (hasta que Trump lo decida) – Yoel Schwartz"},"content":{"rendered":"

En <\/span>medio <\/span>de <\/span>la <\/span>escalada <\/span>b\u00e9lica <\/span>entre <\/span>Israel <\/span>e <\/span>Ir\u00e1n, <\/span>el <\/span>analista <\/span>internacional <\/span>Yoel <\/span>Schwarz <\/span><\/strong>traz\u00f3 <\/span>un <\/span>panorama <\/span>sobre <\/span>los <\/span>objetivos <\/span>estrat\u00e9gicos <\/span>en <\/span>juego <\/span>y <\/span>las <\/span>posibles <\/span>salidas <\/span>del <\/span>conflicto, <\/span>en <\/span>una <\/span>entrevista <\/span>. <\/span>La <\/span>conversaci\u00f3n <\/span>puso <\/span>el <\/span>foco <\/span>en <\/span>las <\/span>diferencias <\/span>entre <\/span>los <\/span>actores <\/span>involucrados <\/span>y <\/span>en <\/span>la <\/span>incertidumbre <\/span>sobre <\/span>el <\/span>desenlace.<\/span><\/p>\n

Schwarz <\/span>explic\u00f3 <\/span>que <\/span>Israel <\/span>persigue <\/span>tres <\/span>objetivos <\/span>militares <\/span>centrales: \u201c<\/strong><\/span>neutralizar <\/span>o <\/span>reducir <\/span>el <\/span>programa <\/span>nuclear <\/span><\/strong>iran\u00ed\u201d<\/strong>, <\/span>limitar \u201c<\/span>la <\/span>capacidad <\/span>misil\u00edstica\u201d <\/span>y <\/span>desarticular <\/span>la <\/span>red <\/span>de <\/span>grupos <\/span>aliados <\/span>de <\/span>Teher\u00e1n <\/span>en <\/span>la <\/span>regi\u00f3n. <\/span>A <\/span>estos <\/span>puntos <\/span>se <\/span>sum\u00f3 <\/span>en <\/span>los <\/span>\u00faltimos <\/span>meses <\/span>una <\/span>meta <\/span>m\u00e1s <\/span>ambiciosa: \u201c<\/strong><\/span>la <\/span>posibilidad <\/span>de <\/span>neutralizar <\/span>al <\/span>r\u00e9gimen <\/span>o <\/span>lograr <\/span>que <\/span>alg\u00fan <\/span>tipo <\/span>de <\/span>movimiento <\/span>interno <\/span>provoque <\/span>la <\/span>ca\u00edda <\/span>del <\/span>r\u00e9gimen <\/span>de <\/span>los <\/span><\/strong>ayatol\u00e1s\u201d<\/strong>, <\/span>aunque <\/span>advirti\u00f3 <\/span>que <\/span>esto <\/span>\u00faltimo \u201c<\/strong><\/span>es <\/span>mucho <\/span>m\u00e1s <\/span>dif\u00edcil <\/span>de <\/span>lograr <\/span>solamente <\/span>con <\/span>bombardeos\u201d.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Respecto <\/span>del <\/span>programa <\/span>nuclear <\/span>iran\u00ed, <\/span>el <\/span>especialista <\/span>se\u00f1al\u00f3 <\/span>que <\/span>persisten <\/span>fuertes <\/span>dudas <\/span>sobre <\/span>su <\/span>alcance <\/span>real. \u201c<\/strong><\/span>Siempre <\/span>vamos <\/span>a <\/span>estar <\/span>con <\/span>la <\/span>duda <\/span>de <\/span>qu\u00e9 <\/span>es <\/span>exactamente <\/span>lo <\/span>que <\/span>se <\/span>ten\u00eda, <\/span>qu\u00e9 <\/span>es <\/span>exactamente <\/span>lo <\/span>que <\/span>se <\/span>revel\u00f3 <\/span>y <\/span>qu\u00e9 <\/span>es <\/span>exactamente <\/span>lo <\/span>que <\/span>se <\/span><\/strong>guard\u00f3\u201d<\/strong>, <\/span>afirm\u00f3, <\/span>al <\/span>tiempo <\/span>que <\/span>record\u00f3 <\/span>que <\/span>hist\u00f3ricamente <\/span>hubo <\/span>cuestionamientos <\/span>internacionales <\/span>por <\/span>la <\/span>falta <\/span>de <\/span>transparencia <\/span>de <\/span>Teher\u00e1n.<\/span><\/p>\n

En <\/span>cuanto <\/span>a <\/span>la <\/span>estrategia <\/span>militar <\/span>israel\u00ed, <\/span>Schwarz <\/span>destac\u00f3 <\/span>el <\/span>uso <\/span>de <\/span>la <\/span>aviaci\u00f3n <\/span>por <\/span>sobre <\/span>los <\/span>misiles: \u201c<\/strong><\/span>logra <\/span>un <\/span>grado <\/span>de <\/span>precisi\u00f3n <\/span>casi <\/span>quir\u00fargica <\/span>que <\/span>el <\/span>aparato <\/span>misil\u00edstico <\/span>dif\u00edcilmente <\/span>puede <\/span><\/strong>lograr\u201d<\/strong>. <\/span>Seg\u00fan <\/span>explic\u00f3, <\/span>esto <\/span>permite <\/span>alcanzar <\/span>objetivos <\/span>espec\u00edficos <\/span>reduciendo <\/span>costos <\/span>en <\/span>vidas <\/span>humanas <\/span>e <\/span>infraestructura.<\/span><\/p>\n

El <\/span>analista <\/span>tambi\u00e9n <\/span>puso <\/span>el <\/span>foco <\/span>en <\/span>la <\/span>l\u00f3gica <\/span>del <\/span>r\u00e9gimen <\/span>iran\u00ed, <\/span>al <\/span>asegurar <\/span>que <\/span>su <\/span>prioridad <\/span>es <\/span>la <\/span>supervivencia: \u201c<\/strong><\/span>va <\/span>a <\/span>hacer <\/span>todo, <\/span>pero <\/span>absolutamente <\/span>todo (\u2026) <\/span>para <\/span>sobrevivir <\/span>y <\/span>reprimir <\/span>la <\/span>protesta <\/span><\/strong>interna\u201d<\/strong>. <\/span>En <\/span>ese <\/span>contexto, <\/span>consider\u00f3 <\/span>posible <\/span>incluso <\/span>concesiones <\/span>inesperadas <\/span>en <\/span>una <\/span>eventual <\/span>negociaci\u00f3n <\/span>internacional, <\/span>aunque <\/span>remarc\u00f3 <\/span>que <\/span>el <\/span>escenario <\/span>sigue <\/span>siendo <\/span>incierto.<\/span><\/p>\n

Sobre <\/span>el <\/span>uso <\/span>potencial <\/span>de <\/span>armas <\/span>nucleares, <\/span>Schwarz <\/span>advirti\u00f3 <\/span>que <\/span>el <\/span>contexto <\/span>actual <\/span>es <\/span>m\u00e1s <\/span>inestable <\/span>que <\/span>durante <\/span>la <\/span>Guerra <\/span>Fr\u00eda: \u201c<\/strong><\/span>hoy <\/span>en <\/span>d\u00eda (\u2026) <\/span>el <\/span>arsenal <\/span>nuclear <\/span>es <\/span>colocado <\/span>sobre <\/span>la <\/span>mesa <\/span>no <\/span>ya <\/span>como <\/span>un <\/span>m\u00e9todo <\/span>de <\/span>disuasi\u00f3n, <\/span>sino <\/span>como <\/span>una <\/span>herramienta <\/span><\/strong>m\u00e1s\u201d<\/strong>. <\/span>Y <\/span>subray\u00f3 <\/span>que <\/span>las <\/span>reiteradas <\/span>declaraciones <\/span>del <\/span>r\u00e9gimen <\/span>iran\u00ed <\/span>contra <\/span>Israel <\/span>generan <\/span>preocupaci\u00f3n: \u201c<\/strong><\/span>tenemos <\/span>buenas <\/span>razones <\/span>para <\/span>creer <\/span>que <\/span>podr\u00edan <\/span>ser <\/span>los <\/span>primeros <\/span>en <\/span>usarlo\u201d.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n

Finalmente, <\/span>el <\/span>especialista <\/span>fue <\/span>categ\u00f3rico <\/span>al <\/span>analizar <\/span>el <\/span>desenlace <\/span>del <\/span>conflicto: \u201c<\/strong><\/span>la <\/span>guerra <\/span>va <\/span>a <\/span>terminar <\/span>el <\/span>d\u00eda <\/span>que <\/span>Trump <\/span>diga <\/span>que <\/span><\/strong>termina\u201d<\/strong>. <\/span>En <\/span>ese <\/span>sentido, <\/span>plante\u00f3 <\/span>una <\/span>tensi\u00f3n <\/span>entre <\/span>los <\/span>intereses <\/span>pol\u00edticos <\/span>de <\/span>Estados <\/span>Unidos <\/span>e <\/span>Israel: <\/span>mientras <\/span>que <\/span>al <\/span>expresidente <\/span>norteamericano \u201c<\/strong><\/span>no <\/span>le <\/span>conviene <\/span>llegar <\/span>con <\/span>esta <\/span>guerra <\/span>a <\/span>las <\/span>elecciones\u201d, <\/span><\/strong>al <\/span>primer <\/span>ministro <\/span>israel\u00ed \u201c<\/span>podr\u00eda <\/span>convenirle\u201d <\/span>sostener <\/span>el <\/span>conflicto <\/span>dependiendo <\/span>de <\/span>su <\/span>evoluci\u00f3n.<\/span><\/p>\n

En <\/span>paralelo, <\/span>Schwarz <\/span>advirti\u00f3 <\/span>que <\/span>Israel <\/span>enfrenta <\/span>desaf\u00edos <\/span>inmediatos <\/span>en <\/span>sus <\/span>fronteras, <\/span>especialmente <\/span>en <\/span>el <\/span>norte, <\/span>y <\/span>alert\u00f3 <\/span>sobre <\/span>el <\/span>riesgo <\/span>de <\/span>repetir <\/span>escenarios <\/span>del <\/span>pasado: \u201c<\/strong><\/span>ning\u00fan <\/span>israel\u00ed <\/span>quiere <\/span>volver <\/span>a <\/span>una <\/span>franja <\/span>de <\/span>seguridad <\/span>que <\/span>sea <\/span>un <\/span>desangradero <\/span>permanente\u201d.<\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

En medio de la escalada b\u00e9lica entre Israel e Ir\u00e1n, el analista internacional Yoel Schwarz traz\u00f3 un panorama sobre los objetivos estrat\u00e9gicos en juego y las posibles salidas del conflicto, en una entrevista . La conversaci\u00f3n puso el foco en las diferencias entre los actores involucrados y en la incertidumbre sobre el desenlace. Schwarz explic\u00f3 que Israel persigue tres objetivos militares centrales: \u201cneutralizar o reducir el programa nuclear iran\u00ed\u201d, limitar \u201cla capacidad misil\u00edstica\u201d y desarticular la red de grupos aliados de Teher\u00e1n en la regi\u00f3n. A estos puntos se sum\u00f3 en los \u00faltimos meses una meta m\u00e1s ambiciosa: \u201cla posibilidad de neutralizar al r\u00e9gimen o lograr que alg\u00fan tipo de movimiento interno provoque la ca\u00edda del r\u00e9gimen de los ayatol\u00e1s\u201d, aunque advirti\u00f3 que esto \u00faltimo \u201ces mucho m\u00e1s dif\u00edcil de lograr solamente con bombardeos\u201d. Respecto del programa nuclear iran\u00ed, el especialista se\u00f1al\u00f3 que persisten fuertes dudas sobre su alcance real. \u201cSiempre vamos a estar con la duda de qu\u00e9 es exactamente lo que se ten\u00eda, qu\u00e9 es exactamente lo que se revel\u00f3 y qu\u00e9 es exactamente lo que se guard\u00f3\u201d, afirm\u00f3, al tiempo que record\u00f3 que hist\u00f3ricamente hubo cuestionamientos internacionales por la falta de transparencia de Teher\u00e1n. En cuanto a …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":13,"featured_media":194048,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"video","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[230],"tags":[157,109,21863,3705],"class_list":["post-194047","post","type-post","status-publish","format-video","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-esto-paso-en-jai","tag-157","tag-israel","tag-la-guerra-que-nadie-puede-frenar-hasta-que-trump-lo-decida","tag-yoel-schwartz","post_format-post-format-video"],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.radiojai.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194047","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.radiojai.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.radiojai.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.radiojai.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/13"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.radiojai.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=194047"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.radiojai.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/194047\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.radiojai.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/194048"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.radiojai.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=194047"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.radiojai.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=194047"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.radiojai.com\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=194047"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}